[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed fluctuated between 500 and 550km/sec, 
and is expected to further decline today. The north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has been more or less neutral 
over past 24 hours. Solar region 551, in the south-east solar 
quadrant, has shown significant growth in its trailer spots overnight, 
and may be still growing. Chance for isolated low level flare 
activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2243 2223
      Darwin              10   2-42 222-
      Townsville           9   2233 2223
      Learmonth            7   2--- ----
      Culgoora             8   2233 1223
      Canberra             9   2233 2223
      Hobart               8   2233 1222
      Casey(Ant)          19   3-54 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              56   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   3233 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
07 Feb    12    Unsettled 
08 Feb    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible today due to a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. Field is then expected to become 
quiet. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF communications quality expected 
at mid to high latitudes briefly early today then normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Feb    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb    60    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb    65    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb    70    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions probable briefly after local dawn for 
southern Aus/NZ regions today, then near predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 573 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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