[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed started the UT day at around 560km/sec 
then rose to 620km/sec near 09UT, then subsequently declined, 
and is currently at around 500km/sec. The north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field unexpectedly became moderately 
southward by up to 10nT during the first half of the UT day. 
The cause of the southward IMF conditions and increased wind 
speed is unclear. However, an overall declining trend in wind 
speed remains expected. The Sun has been relatively quiet over 
the past 24 hours. Chance for isolated low level flare activity 
from solar region 551. Also, previously flaring solar region 
540,is due back to the south-east limb around 08 Feb. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2333 3332
      Darwin              12   1333 3322
      Townsville          13   2333 3331
      Learmonth           13   2333 3331
      Culgoora            12   1333 2332
      Canberra            12   2333 2332
      Hobart              17   2344 3332
      Casey(Ant)          19   --43 3342
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 FEB : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             14   3334 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb    12    Unsettled 
08 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: An declining trend in geomagnetic activity is expected 
over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb    70    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb    70    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild/moderate depressions probable briefly after local 
dawn for southern Aus/NZ regions today, then near predicted monthly 
values. Depression appears to be ionsospheric response to mild 
geomagentic activity induced by unexpected southward interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) conditions. The IMF is now neutral therefore 
depressed MUF conditions are not expected to persist. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 508 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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