[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar region 547 (S05W48) produced a C9.9 (almost M1) 
flare at 1118UT. Solar region 551 in the south-east solar quadrant 
is showing growth. Chance for isolated low level M class flare. 
Solar wind speed remains moderately elevated (550 to 600km/sec) 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3223 3322
      Darwin               9   2223 3223
      Townsville          10   3223 3222
      Learmonth           10   3222 3321
      Culgoora             9   2123 3312
      Canberra            11   2233 3322
      Hobart               9   2232 3312
      Casey(Ant)          12   4--3 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 FEB : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            83   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             17   4343 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
06 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
07 Feb    12    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next two days due to 
a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Field is then expected 
to become quiet. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF communications quality expected 
at mid to high latitudes due to activity induced by solar coronal 
hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Feb    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions probable briefly after local dawn for 
southern Aus/NZ regions over next two days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 616 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   183000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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