[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was at around 600km/sec over the UT 
day. Elevated solar wind speed due to coronal hole wind stream. 
27 day recurrence patterns suggest elevated wind speed conditions 
may persist up to 06/07 Feb. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated southward by up to 5nT 
at times during the UT day. Isolated low level flare activity 
possible. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3443 3432
      Darwin              16   3333 4333
      Townsville          16   3333 3433
      Learmonth           21   3333 4532
      Culgoora            15   3333 3332
      Canberra            20   3443 3432
      Hobart              19   3443 3422
      Casey(Ant)          29   4554 3433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           19   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            89   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              94   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             21   2154 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
05 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
06 Feb    16    Unsettled to Active 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF communications quality expected 
at mid to high latitudes due to activity induced by solar coronal 
hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Feb    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Feb    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions probable briefly after local dawn for 
southern Aus/NZ regions over next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 565 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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