[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 13 10:36:02 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few
B-class flares were observed. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 510 km/s to 400 km/s during the UT day. The
effect of the CME seems to have subsided now and it has been
weaker than expected. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed slightly southwards
until 1500 UT and then turned northwards and remained mostly
slightly northwards during the next 6 hours until around
2100UT. Bz is currently staying moderately southwards for
about one hour. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels during the next three days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 12/0530UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 21 3334 3533
Darwin 21 3333 4534
Townsville 23 3334 4533
Learmonth 23 3234 4544
Culgoora 21 3334 3533
Canberra 21 3334 3533
Hobart 18 3334 3433
Casey(Ant) 23 4353 3433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 41 (Unsettled)
Culgoora 70 (Active)
Canberra 116 (Major storm)
Hobart 139 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 43
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 1132 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, slight chance of isolated
active periods.
14 Dec 7 Quiet
15 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity went upto minor storm
levels due to the anticipated effect of the CME. The effect
of this CME seems to have remained slightly weaker than
anticipated. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 13 December with some chance of isolated active
periods if Bz stays negative and the solar wind stream remains
strengthened. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 14 and
15 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Fair-normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs and degradations in
HF conditions were observed at high latitudes as the
anticipated rise in the geomagnetic activity continued
today. Minor depressions and degradations may be observed
at high latitudes on 13 December, otherwise HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal at most locations
during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
depressions and degradations over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 50 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
14 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
15 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. However,
minor depressions are also possible at times in the southern
Aus/NZ regions on 13 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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