[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 12 10:56:25 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only three
B-class flares were observed. The solar wind speed remained
between 450 and 500 km/s until approximately 1300 UT when
the arrival of an anticipated shock from the CME observed
on 08 December, raised the solar wind speed to 550 km/s.
The solar wind speed then rose upto 600 km/s and later
came down to 550 km/s by the time of this report. Until
now the effect of this CME seems to have been weaker than
expected. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) stayed near the normal value until
1300 UT when the shock from the CME arrived. Bz showed
rapid fluctuations on both sides of the normal value for
about two hours after the arrival of the shock and then
remained mostly slightly negative for the rest of the UT
day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to
low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to active,
isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 2222 4333
Darwin 14 1122 5333
Townsville 15 2222 5333
Learmonth 14 2221 5333
Culgoora 11 1222 4333
Canberra 12 2222 4333
Hobart 12 2222 4333
Casey(Ant) 17 --33 4334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1223 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 16 Mostly unsettled to active.
13 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on
10 December and is current for interval 11-12 December.
The anticipated arrival of the CME, that was observed on
08 December, strengthened the solar wind stream from
1306 UT and resulted in an increase in the geomagnetic
activity to active levels with isolated minor storm periods
recorded at some stations. The effect of this CME seems
to have been weaker than anticipated. Mostly unsettled
to active conditions are expected on 12 December. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to mostly
unsettled to quiet levels during the next two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions were observed at high latitudes after the
anticipated rise in the geomagnetic activity eventuated
today. Today's depressions in MUFs and degradations in
HF conditions remained less than anticipated as the
geomagnetic activity did not rise to the anticipated levels.
Minor to mild depressions and degradations may be
observed on high latitudes on 12 December, otherwise HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal at most
locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 45 near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
14 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on
10 December and is current for interval 11-12 December.
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in most
Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. However, minor
depressions are also possible at times in the southern Aus/NZ
regions on 12 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 32300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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