[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 14 10:22:51 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few
low B-class flares were observed. The solar wind speed
remained between 380 and 420 km/s almost the whole day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) stayed moderately southwards for the first
few hours and turned northwards around 0400UT. Bz stayed
mostly sligtly to moderately nortwards during the rest of
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to unsettled,
isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 3332 2112
Darwin 9 3332 1213
Townsville 9 3332 2112
Learmonth 7 3222 2213
Culgoora 8 3332 1112
Canberra 9 3332 2123
Hobart 8 3332 2101
Casey(Ant) 15 4-43 3213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 36 5455 4533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
15 Dec 6 Quiet
16 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity went upto active levels
during the early hours today. It was due to Bz staying
southwards for a few hours and slightly strengthened solar
wind stream. The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days with some
possibility of isolated unsettled conditions on 14 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
15 Dec 48 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
16 Dec 48 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 57200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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