[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 5 10:37:57 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:**RED** ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: There is the small chance of further M-class flare activity
from solar region 708. Solar wind speed and density are low with
speeds averaging around 300km/s. The CME expected to have a glancing
impact on 4 December has not eventuated, however, the CME associated
with the flare on 3 December is still expected to have a direct
impact during 5 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 1100 1001
Darwin 1 1110 0011
Townsville 0 0000 0002
Learmonth 3 3200 0002
Culgoora 0 1000 1001
Canberra 0 1000 100-
Hobart 1 1100 1001
Casey(Ant) 5 2222 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 50 Initially quiet with minor to major storm periods
later in UT day.
06 Dec 25 Unsettled to active with minor storm periods.
07 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 4-6 December. The CME expected to
have a glancing impact on 4 December did not eventuate, however,
the CME associated with the flare on 3 December is still expected
to have a direct impact during 5 December, resulting in minor
to major storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal-poor Normal-poor
06 Dec Normal-fair Poor-normal Poor-normal
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed for mid-high latitudes for late 5
to 6 December as the result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 30 Initially enhanced up to 15%, with depressions
of 15-30% expected later in the UT day.
06 Dec 45 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 5-6 December. Moderate depressions
in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed for
mid-high latitudes for late 5 to 6 December as the result of
anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 72000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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