[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 4 10:46:58 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:**RED** ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/2F 0006UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: There is the small chance of further M-class flare activity
from solar region 708. Effects of a coronal hole solar wind stream
have continued to decline over the past 24 hours with wind speeds
slowly decreasing from 440km/s down to approximately 380km/s.
There is the chance of a glancing impact on 4 December from the
CME observed in association with the flare on 1 December, while
the CME observed early 3 December is expected to have a direct
impact late on 4 December to early 5 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 2221 1111
Darwin 3 2111 1112
Townsville 3 1211 1111
Learmonth 6 2231 1211
Culgoora 3 1111 1112
Canberra 3 1211 0111
Hobart 4 2221 0111
Casey(Ant) 9 3-32 1222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1120 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 25 Unsettled with possible active and isolated minor
storm periods.
05 Dec 50 Unsettled to active with minor to major storm
periods.
06 Dec 25 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 4-6 December. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase over the next few days as the result
of recent CME activity. A CME is expected to have a glancing
impact during 4 December resulting in isolated minor storm periods
with another CME expected to have a direct impact on 5 December
resulting in minor to major storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed for mid-high latitudes for late 4 December with
more significant depressions expected for 5-6 December as the
result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Dec 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
06 Dec 45 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed for southern Aus/NZ regions for late 4 December
with more significant depressions expected for 5-6 December as
the result of anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 93300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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