[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 6 10:34:40 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The anticipated impact of the CME observed on 3 December
was detected as a shock in the solar wind at 0654UT on 5 December.
Solar wind speeds increased from 300km/s ot 450km/s and the north-south
component of the IMF to approximately 40nT northward. Solar wind
paramaters appear to be returning slowly to nominal values.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0654UT on
05 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 22 1364 2232
Darwin 20 1364 2223
Townsville 24 1364 3332
Learmonth 22 1364 3222
Culgoora 20 1363 2232
Canberra 25 -364 223-
Hobart 19 1363 2222
Casey(Ant) 30 3465 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 DEC :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
07 Dec 12 Quiet to unsettled
08 Dec 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 4-6 December. The anticpated impact
of the CME observed on 3 December was observed as a shock in
the solar wind at 0654UT on 5 December. An isolated major storm
period followed the shock with mostly unsettled to quiet conditions
otherwise. The CME has not been as geoeffective as anticipated
due to the northward direction of the associated IMF.
A moderate (92nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer
data at 0747UT on 05 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The impact of the CME observed on 3 December has not
been as geoeffective as anticipated with only minor ionospheric
effects being observed. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected
for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 70 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Dec 70 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Dec 70 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 3 December
and is current for interval 5-6 December. The impact of the CME
observed on 3 December has not been as geoeffective as anticipated
with only minor ionospheric effects being observed. Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 22000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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