[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 20 09:44:31 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 0701UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.1 1351UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate today. Region 656,
which is now on the western limb around S13, produced two
M-class flares (M3.0/0701UT and M2.1/1351UT) and several
C-class flares. The solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from 360 km/s to 340 km/s (approx.) during the UT
day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained mostly slightly negative during the day.
The solar wind stream may remain slightly strengthened during
the next 2 days due to the coronal hole effect. Region 661
remained almost stable during the last 24 hours and holds
potential for C or M class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 2211 1112
Darwin 4 2211 1113
Townsville 3 2201 1113
Learmonth 3 3100 1112
Culgoora 3 1211 1113
Canberra 2 1200 1113
Hobart 2 1100 1112
Casey(Ant) 6 3321 0101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3243 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled with some possiblity of active
periods.
21 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled
22 Aug 8 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a small coronal hole that is
in a geo-effective position now, the geomagnetic activity
may get slightly to moderately enhanced at times during the
next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next three days with some possibility of
minor to moderate depressions and degradations at high
latitudes during the first 2 days of this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 40% with periods of depressions
and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 68 near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 70 Near monthly predicted values to enhanced 5%.
22 Aug 74 Near monthly predicted values to enhanced 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 3 days in Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
X-ray background: B9.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 47300 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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