[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 19 09:55:12 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.8/SF 1740UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been high today. Regions
656(S15W88) and 661(N09E05) produced several C-class
flares. Region 656 also produced the largest flare of
the day, an X1.8 flare at 1740UT. This flare was
associated to a Type II radio burst and possibly to a
CME that was observed around the time of the flare
from the limb near region 656. This CME is not expected
to be significantly geo-effective. A C3.2 flare from
region 661 at 1044UT was also associated to a Type II
event. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from 350 km/s to 320 km/s (approx.) during the first
half of the UT day and then showed a gradual increase
to 360 km/s by the time of this report. This increase
in the solar wind speed may have been caused by the
effect of the small coronal hole that is in a
geo-effective position now. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) mostly
remained positive during the day. However Bz has been
slightly negative during the last four hours (approx.).
The solar wind stream may remain slightly to moderately
strengthened during the next 3 days due to the coronal
hole effect. Region 661 has shown some growth during the
last 24 hours and holds potential for C or M class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 2231 2112
Darwin 5 2222 2113
Townsville 7 2331 2112
Learmonth 5 2221 2111
Culgoora 5 1231 1113
Canberra 5 1231 2003
Hobart 4 0231 1002
Casey(Ant) 8 3332 2102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 AUG :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3112 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled with some possiblity of active
periods.
20 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled with some possiblity of active
periods.
21 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a small coronal hole, that
is in a geo-effective position now, the geomagnetic activity
may get slightly to moderately enhanced during the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next three days with some possibility
of minor to moderate depressions and degradations at high
latitudes due to a possible rise in the geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 25% with periods of minor
to moderate depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 68 near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 68 near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 74 Near monthly predicted values to enhanced 10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on
16 August and is current for interval 17-19 August (SWFs).
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during
the next 3 days in Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 31200 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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