[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 21 09:54:57 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. The only
C-flare (C2.8/0107UT), that was recorded today, came
from region 656 which is now behind the limb. The solar
wind speed showed a gradual increase from 350 km/s to
400 km/s (approx.) during the UT day due to a coronal hole
effect. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained mostly moderately negative
during the day. The solar wind stream may remain slightly
strengthened on 21 August due to the effect of a small
coronal hole which is currently in a geo-effective position.
The solar wind stream may again get strengthened from
23 August due to another coronal hole taking geo-effective
position around that time. Regions 661(N08W20), 662(N13W01)
and 663(N10E66) showed slight growth in size during the last
24 hours. Region 661 holds potential for C or isolated
M class events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 2233 3323
Darwin 9 2223 2323
Townsville 11 2233 3323
Learmonth 12 -333 2322
Culgoora 9 2223 3223
Canberra 11 2233 3323
Hobart 13 2233 4322
Casey(Ant) 15 3--- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 AUG :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7 3102 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled
22 Aug 8 Mostly quiet.
23 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a small coronal hole that is
in a geo-effective position now, the geomagnetic activity
may remain slightly to moderately enhanced at times during
the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic activity may again show
enhancements starting from 23 August due to another coronal
hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next three days with some possibility
of minor to moderate depressions and degradations at high
latitudes on 21 and 23 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 30% with periods of significant
degradations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 70 Near monthly predicted values to enhanced 5%.
22 Aug 74 Near monthly predicted values to enhanced 10%.
23 Aug 68 Near monthly predicted values to enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 3 days in Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
X-ray background: B9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 64100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list