[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 9 09:55:01 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Some surging noted in active region 655 near the western
limb of the visible solar disk. Some loop prominence activity
observed on the east limb. This is associated with region 656,
which produced a number of M- to X-class flares on the previous
rotation. A small southern hemisphere coronal hole is now past
central solar meridian. Resultant high speed solar wind stream
previously observed is now in decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 1210 0001
Darwin 3 1211 0112
Townsville 1 1111 0002
Learmonth 2 2210 0010
Culgoora 1 1110 0002
Canberra 1 1110 0002
Hobart 1 1110 0001
Casey(Ant) 6 2331 1010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 AUG :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 20 3354 4323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is in decline as the coronal hole rotates
off the western limb. IMF Bz is slightly southward and tending
neutral. Resultant geomagnetic conditions have been quiet. Similar
conditions expected in the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor daytime depressions observed at low latitudes.
Widespread disturbances at high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions
expected next few days. Chance isolated degradations at high
latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brief localised daytime disturbances and spread-F conditions
observed at Equatorial/N Aus regions. Evening spread-F observed
S Aus region. Widespread spread-F and sporadic-E conditions observed
Antarctic region. Mostly normal HF conditions expected next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 75100 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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