[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 10 09:53:52 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78
COMMENT: Fast full-halo CME observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 08/09UT. 
This appears to be a backside event with no anticipated geophysical 
consequences. Active region 656 produced a number of C class 
flares over the period and shows continuing growth and moderate 
magnetic complexity. There is a possibility of isolated M class 
flares from this region over the next three days. Culgoora radio 
spectrograph has observed a general increase in background solar 
radio noise most probably associated with active region 656. 
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed on the ACE satellite 
platform at 15UT. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2232 1233
      Darwin               9   2332 1233
      Townsville           6   2222 1222
      Learmonth            8   1222 1332
      Culgoora             8   1232 1232
      Canberra             9   2232 1333
      Hobart               8   2232 1233
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 1223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 AUG : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2210 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The coronal hole windstream continues to decline to 
nominal solar wind levels. A solar sector boundary crossing was 
observed on the ACE satellite platform at 15UT. Mild negative 
Bz after this event resulted in isolated periods of active geomagnetic 
conditions at high latitudes only. Otherwise geomagnetic conditions 
were generally quiet. Expect continuing mostly quiet conditions 
for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly enhanced critical frequencies at low latitudes. 
Slightly elevated critical frequencies and disturbed ionosphere 
at high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions expected next 
few days. Chance isolated degradations at high latitudes in association 
with geomagnetic activity. Possibility of SWFs over the next 
few days if AR656 produces significant X-ray flare activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug    45    near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug    45    near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread-F conditions observed at Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Widespread spread-F and disturbed conditions observed Antarctic 
region. Mostly normal HF conditions expected next three days. 
Possibility of SWFs from AR656 if it produces significant X-ray 
flares. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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