[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 8 09:59:18 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: The sun has been flare quiet over the past few days.
Some surging noted in active region 655 near the centre of the
visible solar disk. Some loop prominence activity observed on
the east limb. This is probably associated with returning region
649, which produced a number of M- to X-class flares on the previous
rotation. A small southern hemisphere coronal hole is now past
central solar meridian. Resultant high speed solar wind stream
observed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 2233 3213
Darwin 9 2233 3213
Townsville 10 2233 3223
Learmonth 10 2233 3222
Culgoora 11 2243 3213
Canberra 11 2243 3213
Hobart 12 1244 3212
Casey(Ant) 9 2332 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 AUG :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7 3111 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
09 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
10 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has elevated in the middle of the UT
day. IMF Bz exhibited extended periods of negative values in
the first half of the day with several excursions to -15nT in
the middle of the day and a return to moderately southward in
the second half of the day, These conditions are conducive to
higher magnetic activity at polar latitutdes. Isolated unsetteld
to active conditions were observed at all latitudes. Similar
conditions expected in the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions and brief disturbances
observed at low latitudes. Widespread disturbances at high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected next few days. Chance isolated
degradations at high latitudes in association with geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 35 near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 35 near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brief localised daytinme disturbances observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Evening spread-F observed S Aus region. Widespread
spread-F and sporadic-E conditions observed Antarctic region.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected next three days. A mildly
elevated coronal hole wind stream may result in periods of disturbance
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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