[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 25 09:40:03 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 23/2112UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Region 597 and newly-numbered region 599 produced numerous 
B- to minor C-class flares over the UT day. Background X-ray 
flux and radio noise declined over the UT day as region 597 rotated 
beyond the west solar limb. There is a possibility of isolated 
M-class activity today from regions 596 and 599. A large southern 
hemisphere coronal hole is producing a mildly elevated solar 
wind stream. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0808UT 
on 24 Apr. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2223 3312
      Darwin              10   2223 3322
      Townsville          12   2224 3322
      Learmonth            8   2223 3212
      Culgoora             9   1223 3312
      Canberra            11   1224 3312
      Hobart               9   2223 3311
      Casey(Ant)          15   3433 3311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 APR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20   2344 5423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr    15    Unsettled, chance for active periods. 
26 Apr    12    Unsettled 
27 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A large southern hemisphere coronal hole is producing 
a mildly elevated solar wind stream. Solar wind speed remains 
at 400-450 km/s. The Bz comnponent of the IMF has remained mostly 
neutral. A period of sustained southward bias in the mid-part 
of the UT day preceded active intervals at high latitudes only. 
Similar conditions are expected today, with a gradual decline 
in solar wind parameters and geomagnetic activity following on 
days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions are expected over the next 
24 hours. Chance of minor disturbances for the next two days 
at higher latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity 
resulting from a mildly elevated coronal hole wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly enhanced with isolated localised
      disturbances.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Apr    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
27 Apr    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed before local dawn at mid-Aus 
latitudes. Mild evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ 
regions. Generally good HF conditions expected for the next 24 
hours. Isolated disturbances possible for the next two days at 
high latitudes, in association with geomagnetic activity resulting 
from a mildly elevated solar wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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