[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 26 09:41:36 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    0537UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels with a C9 level 
flare at 0140UT and an M2 level flare at 0500UT, both resulting 
from active region 599. This region produced a number of other 
B- to minor C-class flares over the UT day. LASCO imagery is 
not available at present for analysis of any possible mass ejection 
from the larger flares. X-ray activity was mostly impulsive, 
and minimal radio sweep activity has been observed on the Culgoora 
Radiospectrograph, indicating that significant CME events are 
unlikely. Region 596 appears to be in slow decline. Region 599 
shows some magnetic complexity, and has potential for further 
isolated M-class activity over the next few days. Solar wind 
speed remainds mildly elevated under the influence of a large 
southern hemisphere coronal hole. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 3122
      Darwin              11   2333 3221
      Townsville          10   2333 3113
      Learmonth            9   2233 3122
      Culgoora             9   1333 3111
      Canberra            11   2333 3121
      Hobart               9   1333 3111
      Casey(Ant)          11   3342 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 APR : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   1234 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr    12    Unsettled, slight chance for active periods. 
27 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Apr     8    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains mildly elevated at 500-550 
km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has remained mostly northward. 
An extended period of southward bias in the first half of the 
UT day resulted in intervals of active conditions at high latitudes, 
and unsettled conditions at lower latitudes. Expect similar conditions 
today, and a gradual decline in geomagnetic activity towards 
mostly quiet conditions by day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions are expected over the next 
24 hours. Chance of minor disturbances for the next two days 
at higher latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity 
resulting from a mildly elevated coronal hole wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly enhanced over the UT day with 
      variable localised disturbances.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Apr    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Apr    80    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated minor daytime depressions observed in Equatorial 
region. Brief mild depression observed before local dawn NZ region 
but recovering post-dawn. Generally good HF conditions expected 
for the next 24 hours. Isolated disturbances possible for the 
next two days at high latitudes, in association with geomagnetic 
activity resulting from a mildly elevated solar wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   135000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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