[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 24 09:44:56 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1150UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels today with considerable 
flare and radio noise activity emanating from AR 597. This region 
produced short duration M1 level flares at 1150 and 2110UT. Considerable 
Type I radio noise has been observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph 
in the hours up to report issue, including a reverse-slope radio 
sweep preceding the latter M1 level flare. There has also been 
a general increase in background X-ray flux over the past two 
days, probably also due to active region 597. This region is 
due to rotate off the west limb within the next 24 hours. There 
is a possibility of further M-class activity today from regions 
597 and 596. A large southern hemisphere coronal hole is producing 
a weak elevated solar wind stream. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2333 4223
      Darwin              11   2323 3233
      Townsville          13   2333 4223
      Learmonth           17   2233 5333
      Culgoora            12   2233 4223
      Canberra            13   2333 4223
      Hobart              16   2333 5222
      Casey(Ant)          19   4442 4323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 APR : 
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0021 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
25 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
26 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 21 April and 
is current for interval 23-24 April. A large southern hemisphere 
coronal hole is producing a mildly elevated solar wind stream. 
Moderate southward excursions in the Bz component of the IMF 
have resulted in periods of active to minor storm geomagnetic 
conditions mainly at high latitudes, with isolaated active periods 
at lower latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
two to three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions are expected over the next 
24 hours. Chance of minor disturbances for the next three days 
at higher latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity 
resulting from a mildly elevated coronal hole wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Apr    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night
      and after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly enhanced with isolated localised
      disturbances. 


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
25 Apr    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Apr    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 21 April 
and is current for interval 23-24 April. Generally good HF conditions 
expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated disturbances possible 
for the next two to three days at high latitudes, in association 
with geomagnetic activity resulting from a mildly elevated solar 
wind stream. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    68000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list