[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 9 09:41:42 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: A C1 level flare with associated Type II radio sweep 
was observed at 0150UT. No optical correlation was available. 
This was possibly a back-side event. There was a long duration 
C7 level flare at 1030UT with a weak full halo CME observed in 
LASCO C3 imagery. The region of origin was AR 588, near the centre 
of the visible solar disk. This event may produce a minor geoeffective 
shock on Apr 11. A disappearing solar filament was reported in the 
vicinity of AR 588 at 1250UT, with no obvious CME observed in LASCO 
C3 imagery. There is a possibility of further isolated C- to low 
M-class activity from region 588. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 08 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2334 3323
      Darwin              13   2324 3323
      Townsville          16   2334 4323
      Learmonth           13   2323 4323
      Culgoora            12   1234 3323
      Canberra            19   2335 4323
      Hobart              17   2335 3322
      Casey(Ant)          14   -433 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 APR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3332 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr    20    active 
10 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Apr    20    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled, with a 
brief period of active conditions in the mid-part of the UT day, 
reaching minor storm levels in some locations. Solar wind parameters 
have declined from the recent coronal hole effects and remained 
steady throughout the UT day. The anticipated shock arrival following 
a recent CME sequence has so far not eventuated. There is still 
a possibility of this arrival on Apr 09. A weak full halo CME 
was observed today after 1030UT, which may produce a minor geoeffective 
shock on Apr 11. Otherwise, geomagnetic activity should decline 
to mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled intervals. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near normal for the next 
three days. There is a possibility of isolated disturbances at 
mid to high latitudes due to geomagnetic disturbance from anticipated 
solar wind shock arrivals on days one and three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Apr    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with
      isolated local disturbances.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    60    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
11 Apr    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief overnight depressions observed N Aus region. Spread-F 
conditions observed generally in Antarctic region. HF conditions 
should be mostly normal to enhanced next three days. There is 
a possibility of distrubances on days one and three at mid to 
high latitudes due to anticipated solar wind shock arrivals following 
recent CME events. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 522 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    94000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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