[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 10 09:45:45 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: The only flare event observed today was a low-level
C-class flare from region 588 at 2040UT. Region 588 is the only
sunspot group on the visible disk at present and appears to be
in decline. There is a possibility of further isolated C-class
activity from this region.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0148UT
on 09 Apr.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
09/1020UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 4332 2222
Darwin 9 3331 2223
Townsville 11 4332 2212
Learmonth 10 3322 3222
Culgoora 9 3332 2212
Canberra 16 5342 2222
Hobart 16 3443 3312
Casey(Ant) 19 4543 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 APR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 2444 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
11 Apr 20 active
12 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The anticipated shock arrival from the CME observed
on 06 Apr arrived at the ACE satellite platform at 09/0150. The
arrival was followed by several hours of southward IMF and mildly
elevated solar wind speeds. Active to minor storm geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the first half of the UT day, declining
to quiet to unsettled in the second half. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions are expected today. There is a possible second shock
arrival expected late on day one or early on day two from the
weak full halo CME observed after 08/1030.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near normal for the next
three days. There is a possibility of isolated disturbances at
mid to high latitudes on day two due to geomagnetic disturbance
from anticipated solar wind shock arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with extended periods of localised disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 60 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Apr 50 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
12 Apr 60 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced ionospheric conditions observed
Aus/NZ regions. Localised disturbances and spread-F conditions
observed generally in Antarctic region. HF conditions should
be mostly normal to enhanced next three days. There is a possibility
of distrubances on day two at mid to high latitudes due to anticipated
solar wind shock arrival.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 97300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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