[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 8 09:44:40 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. There 
is a possibility of further C- to M-class activity from region 
588. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2231 2223
      Darwin               5   2221 2122
      Townsville           7   2231 2223
      Learmonth            7   2222 2223
      Culgoora             7   2231 2222
      Canberra             7   2231 2222
      Hobart               7   2231 2223
      Casey(Ant)          12   3432 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 APR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            70   (Active)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21   4444 4232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr    20    active 
09 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 7 April and 
is current for interval 8 April only. Solar wind parameters declined 
over the UT day as the present geoeffective coronal hole approaches 
the west solar limb. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has been mostly near neutral, resulting in mostly quiet 
geomagnetic conditions. A period of moderate Bz polarity fluctuations 
late in the UT day preceded active to minor storm periods at 
high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods are possible on 
day one due to the anticipated shock arrival from the recent 
CME sequence. Geomagnetic activity should decline to mostly quiet, 
with isolated unsettled intervals, on days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near normal for the next 
three days. There is a possibility of isolated disturbances at 
mid to high latitudes due to geomagnetic disturbance from anticipated 
solar wind shock arrival. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day, 
      with variable local disturbances.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    60    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 7 April 
and is current for interval 8 April only. Overnight spread-F 
conditions observed S Aus region. Spread-F observed generally 
in Antarctic region. HF conditions should be mostly normal to 
enhanced next three days. There is a possibility of distrubances 
on day one at mid to high latitudes due to anticipated solar 
wind shock arrival following the recent CME sequence. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 575 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   221000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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