[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 7 09:56:22 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M2.4/SF    1328UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 101/49

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Region 
588(S15E13) produced a few B-class and an M2.4 flare. 
The M2.4 flare that peaked at 1328UT was associated to 
a full halo CME with an estimated speed of about 
1075km/s. The CME is not earthward directed but may 
have a glancing blow on 08 April. The solar wind speed 
increased from 460 to 600 km/s (approx.) by around 
2100UT. It then showed a gradual decrease to 
approximately 550 km/s until the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) showed minor to moderate fluctuations around 
the normal value almost the whole day. The effect of 
the coronal hole is continuing and is expected to go 
on for a few more days. The shape of the coronal hole 
suggests that its effect may or may not be steady in 
nature. The possible glancing blow from the CME obseved 
on 05 April may cause some strengthening in the solar 
wind stream during the second half of 07 April or on 
08 April. A possible glancing blow from the CME observed 
on 06 April may also strengthen the solar wind stream 
on 08 April. Region 588 may produce C-class of M-class 
activities. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   2344 4232
      Darwin              15   2234 4232
      Townsville          16   2344 4222
      Learmonth           20   3235 4242
      Culgoora            16   2344 4222
      Canberra            17   2344 4233
      Hobart              17   2344 4233
      Casey(Ant)          17   3344 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            76   (Active)
      Hobart              89   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   1101 3454     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    24    Moslty unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
08 Apr    26    Moslty unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
09 Apr    22    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April 
and is current for interval 5-7 April. Quiet to active 
periods were observed on 06 April, due to the anticipated 
effect of a coronal hole. The effect of this coronal hole 
is expected to continue for the next few days. Possible 
glancing blows from the two CMEs observed on 05 and 06 
April may also strengthen the geomagnetic activity from 
second half on 07 April to 08 April. Active to minor 
storm periods may be observed on 07 and 08 April. However, 
if Bz doesn't go negative the geomagnetic activity may not 
rise to as high levels as predicted above. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
08 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show degradations 
during the next two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Apr    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and strong degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    40    10 to 25% below predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    40    10 to 25% below predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    44    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 
4 April and is current for interval 5-7 April. HF conditions 
may show degradations during the next 2 days in Aus/NZ regions. 
MUF depressions of 5 to 25 % are possible during this period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:   10.1 p/cc  Temp:    19900 K  Bz:  14 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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