[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 6 09:57:36 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.7/1F    0555UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.7    0606UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 109/59

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Region 
588(S15E24) produced several B-class and an M1.7 flare. 
The M1.7 flare that peaked at 0555UT, was associated to 
a Type II radio burst and a CME. Culgoora reported 
possible speeds of 615 km/s or 950 km/s for this TypeII 
event as the fundamental and harmonic components of the 
event were not clearly visible. The CME is not earthward 
directed but may have a glancing blow late on 07 April 
or in the first half of 08 April. The solar wind speed 
decreased from 420 to 380 km/s (approx.) until around 
0600UT. It then showed a gradual increase throughout the 
rest of the day and reached upto approximately 460 km/s
by the time of this report. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained positive 
and steady at approximately 15 nT during the first six 
hours of the UT day and then started falling towards the 
normal value and showed minor fluctuations around the 
normal value during the last four hours of the UT day. 
These variations in the solar wind speed and Bz indicate 
that the earth has entered the high speed solar wind 
speed of the coronal hole, an arm of which is in the 
geoeffective position now. The effect of the coronal 
hole is expected to continue for the next few days. 
The shape of the coronal hole suggests that its effect 
may or may not be steady in nature. The possible glancing 
blow from the CME obseved on 05 April may also cause some 
strengthening in the solar wind stream during the second 
half of 07 April or first half of 08 April. Region 588 has 
shown some growth in magnetic compexity during the last 
24 hours. Regions 588 and 587 (S14W32) hold potential for 
C-class activity and can also produce isolated M-flare. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to active with 
periods of minor storm. 

Estimated Indices 05 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   1112 3444
      Darwin              12   1212 3444
      Townsville          12   1112 3444
      Learmonth           12   2111 3444
      Culgoora            18   1112 3553
      Canberra            19   0112 4554
      Hobart              19   0112 4554
      Casey(Ant)          13   3332 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12   5321 2213     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr    26    Active to minor storm 
07 Apr    32    Active to minor storm. Isolated major storm periods 
                possible. 
08 Apr    32    Active to minor storm. Isolated major storm periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April 
and is current for interval 5-7 April. Active to minor 
storm periods were observed on 05 April, probably due to 
the starting of a coronal hole effect. The effect of this 
coronal hole is expected to continue for the next few days. 
A possible glancing blow from a CME may also slightly 
strengthen the geomagnetic activity late on 07 or in the 
first half of 08 April. Active to minor storm periods may 
be observed from 06 to 08 April. Even isolated major storm 
conditions are possible on 07 and 8 April. However, if Bz 
doesn't go negative the geomagnetic activity may not rise 
to as high levels as predicted above. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
07 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
08 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show degradations 
during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Apr    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day
      with periods of minor to substantial depressions
      and degradation.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr    47    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
07 Apr    42    10 to 25% below predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    42    10 to 25% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 
4 April and is current for interval 5-7 April. HF conditions 
may show degradations during the next 3 days in Aus/NZ 
regions. MUF depressions of 5 to 25 % are possible during 
this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    19700 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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