[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 5 09:57:42 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B-class and one
C-3 flares were recorded. The C-3 flare was produced by region
588(S16E41) at 1626UT. The solar wind speed remained nearly
steady at about 500 km/s until around 0500UT and then
gradually decreased to approximately 400 km/s by the end of
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained predominantly northwards during
the UT day. Bz remained positive (approx. 10 nT) for
approximately last ten hours of the UT day. These variations
in solar wind characteristics seem to have been caused by
the arrival ot the CME that was associated to the long
duration flare on 31 March. The coronal hole effect, that was
earlier considered as a posbbile cause for these variations in
the solar wind stream characteristics, does not seem to have
started yet. This coronal hole is now expected to strengthen
the solar wind stream for the next few days, starting from 05
April. Region 588 and 587(S14W18) may produce C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to active, with
periods of minor storm.
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 4212 2224
Darwin 11 5112 2225
Townsville 11 4202 2335
Learmonth 17 6202 2323
Culgoora 8 4201 2224
Canberra 8 4202 2224
Hobart 8 4211 2124
Casey(Ant) 9 4-22 2124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 APR :
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 23 2343 4455
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 25 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
06 Apr 40 Active to minor storm. Isolated major storm periods
possible.
07 Apr 22 Unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April
and is current for interval 5-7 April. Active to minor storm
periods were observed on 04 April, probably due to the
diminishing effect of the CME that seems to have arrived on
03 April. The effect of a coronal hole, that is currently
taking the geoeffective position, may keep the geo-magnetic
activity enhanced during the next three days. Active to minor
storm periods may be observed from 05 to 07 April. Even isolated
major storm conditions are possible on 06 April. However, if Bz
remains positive as it is now, the geomagnetic activity may not
rise to as high levels as predicted above.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Fair-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
06 Apr Fair Fair-poor Poor
07 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions may show moderate degradations during
the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Data available only from one stations. Depressions
were observed in this data.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 52 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Apr 45 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Apr 54 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 4 April
and is current for interval 5-7 April. HF conditions may show
minor to moderate degradations during the next 3 days in Aus/NZ
regions. MUF depressions of 5 to 20 % are possible during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 50100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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