[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 4 09:58:59 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 107/57

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Regions 588(S12E50) 
and 587(S13W4) produced B-class flares, the largest being a 
B7.2 flare at 1808UT from region 587. The solar wind speed 
remained between 360 and 400 km/s (approx) until around 0900UT 
when the speed showed sudden increase. Other solar wind 
parameters also showed sudden change at this time and a weak 
shock seems to have arrived. The solar wind speed continued to 
increase thereafter and reached 500 km/s at 1600UT. The solar 
wind speed remained steady around 500 km/s during the rest of 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained predominantly southwards during the UT day 
and went as far negative as 10 nT (approx.). A sudden impulse 
(27nT)  was observed at 1410UT/03 April.  These variations in 
solar wind speed and Bz may have been caused by the CME activity 
that was associated to the long duration flare on 31 March, or 
they may have been caused by an earlier than anticipated strengthening 
of the solar wind stream due a coronal hole which is crossing the 
central meridian now and a part of which may already have taken 
geo-effective position. Region 587 has shown slight decay whereas 
region 588 has shown slight grwoth during the last 24 hours. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1356UT 
on 03 Apr. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 03 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   2223 4554
      Darwin              17   3223 4445
      Townsville          25   2234 5455
      Learmonth           24   1123 5555
      Culgoora            18   1123 4454
      Canberra            25   1223 5554
      Hobart              27   1233 4564
      Casey(Ant)          19   3223 3544
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1001 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr    25    Active to minor storm 
05 Apr    25    Active to minor storm 
06 Apr    40    Minor to major storm. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 3 April and 
is current for interval 4 April only. Minor storm periods were 
observed on 03 April, probably due to an earlier than anticipated 
arrival of a weak shock from a CME that was observed on 31 March, 
or due to an earlier than anticipated effect of a coronal hole 
that is crossing the central meridian now. Active to minor storm 
periods may be observed on 04 and 05 April. Minor to major storm 
conditions are possible on 06 April. 
A weak (27nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1410UT on 03 Apr. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor     
05 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor     
06 Apr      Fair           Fair           Poor          
COMMENT: HF conditions may show degradations during the next 
three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Apr    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods
      of depressions and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
05 Apr    52    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
06 Apr    45    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 3 April 
and is current for interval 4 April only. HF conditions may show 
degradations during the next 3 days in Aus/NZ regions. MUF depressions 
of 5 to 20 % are possible during this period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    76800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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