[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 3 09:47:24 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 108/58

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few 
B-class flares were observed, the largest being a B4.6 
flare at 0654UT from region 587(S13E10). As anticipated, 
the solar wind speed has further slowed down. The solar 
wind speed gradually decreased from 440 km/s to 370 km/s 
(approx.) during the UT day. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mostly 
slightly positive during the UT day with minor occasional 
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value. Region 
587(S13E10) has shown some steady growth during the last 
24 hours and there is some possibility of a low level 
M-class flare from this region. A minor shock may arrive 
on 04 April due to the faint full halo CME activity observed 
on 31 March. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2121 0101
      Darwin               3   2121 0111
      Townsville           3   1121 0112
      Learmonth            2   1121 0101
      Culgoora             1   1011 0102
      Canberra             2   -121 0002
      Hobart               1   1120 0001
      Casey(Ant)           7   33-2 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 APR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0011 2121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr     6    Quiet 
04 Apr    18    Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
05 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at 
quiet level on 03 April. However, the geomagnetic activity 
may rise on 04 April due to an anticipated arrival of a CME 
on this day. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are 
expected on 04 April with some possibility of isolated minor 
storm conditions, especially at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on 03 April in most regions. However, minor to moderate 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may 
be observed on 04 April at mid and high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Apr    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 35% with periods of depressions
      and degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr    66    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
04 Apr    50    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
05 Apr    58    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in all Aus/NZ regions on 03 April. Isolated periods of minor 
depressions and degradations are possible on 04 April, 
particularly in Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    67100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list