[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 2 09:48:40 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 582 (N14W23)
produced the largest event of the day, a C1.4 flare at 1711UT.
A faint but full halo CME was noticed in the LASCO images at
2153UT on 31 March and it has been reported to have come from
region 582. A minor shock due to this CME may arrive on
04 April. As anticipated, the solar wind speed has further
slowed down. The solar wind speed gradually degreased from
480 km/s to 440 km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal
value and it remained between +4nT and -4nT for most of the
time. This indicates that the anticipated decline in the
coronal hole effect is continuing. This effect is expected
to decline further during the next two days. Region
587(S13E23) has shown some decay during the last 24 hours.
There is some possibility of a low level M-class flare from
region 582.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 1110 2002
Darwin 3 1111 2112
Townsville 2 1010 2113
Learmonth 2 1110 2002
Culgoora 1 0110 2002
Canberra 1 0110 1001
Hobart 0 0100 1001
Casey(Ant) 8 3-32 2112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 APR :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1231 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 7 Quiet
03 Apr 6 Quiet
04 Apr 18 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to further
decline during the next 2 days as the coronal hole effect
is expected to gradually subside during this period. However,
the geomagnetic activity may rise on 04 April due to an
anticipated arrival of a CME on this day. Mostly unsettled
to active conditions are expected on 04 April with some
possibility of isolated minor storm conditions, especially
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next two days in most regions. However, minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be
observed on 04 April at mid and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
isolated short periods of degradations recorded at some
stations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 46
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 70 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr 70 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next two days. Isolated periods of minor depressions and
degradations are possible on 04 April in Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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