[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 1 09:54:50 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 121/73

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 582 (N14W10) 
was the most active region today as it produced several 
C-class flares, which include the largest flare, a C7.4 at 
2008UT and a relatively longer duration flare C3.7 at 0935UT. 
As anticipated, the solar wind speed has further slowed down. 
The solar wind speed gradually degreased from 560 km/s to 
450 km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor 
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value and it remained 
between +4nT and -4nT for most of the time. This indicates that 
the anticipated decline in the coronal hole effect is in 
progress. This effect is expected to decline further during 
the next two days. Region 587 has shown growth during the 
last 24 hours. Region 582 holds potential for M-class flare 
activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2121 3232
      Darwin               5   2121 2222
      Townsville           7   1111 3232
      Learmonth            8   2121 3231
      Culgoora             5   1121 2222
      Canberra             8   1221 3232
      Hobart               8   1222 3232
      Casey(Ant)          10   3--2 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           102   (Major storm)
      Hobart             131   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   1244 4321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr     8    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
02 Apr     6    Quiet 
03 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to further
decline during the next few days as the coronal hole effect 
is expected to gradually subside during this period. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected to be observed in almost all 
regions during the next 3 days, with some possibility of 
isolated unsettled periods, particularly on high latitudes,
on day one. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected 
for the next few days in most regions. However, isolated 
periods of minor degradations are possible on high latitudes 
on 01 April. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Mar    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Priods of enhancements upto 35% with 
      periods of minor depressions and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
02 Apr    78    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
03 Apr    84    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected 
for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 584 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  
Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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