[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 24 09:51:07 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Only two flares,
a B8.0 at 1144UT and a C2.1 at 1444UT, were recorded.
Region 464(N06E49) is still the largest region on the disk
and it is growing in size and magnetic complexity. The
solar wind speed decreased from 510 to 460 km/s (approx)
during the first half of the UT day and then increased to
510 km/s (approx) by the time of this report. This continued
strengthening of the solar wind stream is due to the presence
of a coronal hole which is in the geoeffective position and
is spread east-west on the disk. This coronal hole may keep
the solar wind stream strengthened during the next two days.
The interplanetary magnetic field kept fluctuating between
approximately +5 and -5 nT almost the whole day. The solar
activity is expected to remain at low levels during the next
three days. However, there may be a slight chance of an
isolated M-flare from region 464.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Mostly quiet to active.
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 13 2333 3333
Darwin 16 3334 3333
Townsville 16 2323 4435
Learmonth 11 2223 3333
Canberra 12 2333 3323
Hobart 14 2333 4323
Casey(Ant) 15 34-3 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 SEP :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 18 3444 4342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
25 Sep 16 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
26 Sep 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet
to active levels today. This was due to the continued effect
of the coronal hole induced high speed solar wind stream. The
geomagnetic activity may remain at mostly unsettled to active
levels tomorrow and then gradually decline to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels by the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be observed
during the next two days, especially at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
significant degradations over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
25 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
26 Sep 68 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 569 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 176000 K
Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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