[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: There is the chance of isolated M-class flare activity 
from solar region 464. A solar filament was reported to have 
left the solar surface at approximately 0532UT, however there 
does not appear to be any Earthward directed CME from the LASCO 
imagery. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 24 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      24   3454 4333
      Darwin              24   3454 4334
      Townsville          22   2354 4333
      Learmonth           21   3353 4333
      Canberra            20   3344 4333
      Hobart              21   3444 4333
      Casey(Ant)          23   4543 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            69   (Active)
      Hobart              69   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             17   3433 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep    18    Mostly unsettled to active with possible isolated 
                minor storm periods. 
26 Sep    12    Unsettled 
27 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at mostly 
unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods 
possible for 25 September due to a high speed coronal hole solar 
wind stream. Conditions should begin to return to quiet to unsettled 
levels by 26 September. The reported disappearing solar filament 
is not expected to be geoeffective at this stage. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Slight to mild degraded HF conditions may be observed 
at times during 25 September, primarily for high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Sep    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed up to 15% at times after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep    65    Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                of 5-15% possible at times for southern regions. 
26 Sep    70    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
27 Sep    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight to mild degraded HF conditions may be observed 
at times during 25 September for southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   109000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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