[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 22 09:51:43 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Four C-class flares
were recorded by the time of this report, the largest being
a C1.8 at 0230UT from region 464(N03E62). Region 464 is
currently the largest region on the disk and has been the
most active region today. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 650 to 530 km/s (approx) during the UT day
today. The solar wind stream seems to be showing signs of
weakening. However, a coronal hole, which is spread east-west
and is in a geoeffective position, may still keep the solar
wind stream strengthened during the next three days. The
interplanetary magnetic field kept fluctuating between
approximately +5 and -5 nT almost the whole day- mostly
remaining southwards. The solar activity is expected to
remain at low levels during the next three days. However,
there may be a slight chance of an isolated M-flare from
region 464.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Mostly quiet to
active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 16 3343 3332
Darwin 11 33-3 2222
Townsville 12 3232 3332
Learmonth 13 3233 3332
Canberra 17 3342 4332
Hobart 18 3343 4331
Casey(Ant) 18 4-43 23--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 34
Planetary 25 4454 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
23 Sep 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
24 Sep 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet
to active levels today with some high latitude stations
recording short periods of minor storm. This was due to the
continued effect of the coronal hole induced high speed solar
wind stream. The geomagnetic activity may remain at mostly
unsettled to active levels during the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
24 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may be observed during
the next three days, especially at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 52 near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 52 near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 52 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Australian/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high)
X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 691 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 285000 K
Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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