[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 21 09:49:57 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 112/63

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Five C-class flares 
were observed, the largest being a C3.6 at 1536UT possibly 
from region 464(N05E77). The solar wind speed increased from 
650 to 750 km/s (approx) during the first half of the UT day 
and then gradually decreased to 600 km/s (approx.) during 
the rest of the UT day. The strengthening of the solar wind 
stream in the first half of the UT day may probably be 
attributed to the second coronal hole spreading East-West 
currently. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field kept fluctuating between +5 and -5 nT almost 
the whole day- mostly remaining southwards. The solar wind 
stream is expected to remain strengthened for the next few 
days due to the combined effect of the two coronal holes in 
geoeffective position at the moment. The solar activity is 
expected to remain at low levels during the next three days. 
However, there may be a slight chance of an isolated M-flare 
possibly from region 464. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      29   3445 4532
      Darwin              32   3455 5432
      Townsville          29   3445 5432
      Learmonth           28   2435 5521
      Canberra            24   3435 4432
      Hobart              23   3345 4422
      Casey(Ant)          31   4434 36--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 SEP : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra           131   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             126   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             32   4455 5443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep    25    Mostly active. Isolated minor storm periods possible. 
22 Sep    22    Mostly active. 
23 Sep    22    Mostly active. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained enhanced at 
unsettled to minor storm level today due to the continued 
effect of the coronal hole induced high speed solar wind 
stream. The geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced on 
21 and 22 September and then show gradual decline. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
22 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded conditions may be 
expected during the next two days, especially at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Sep    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods
      of significant degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep    42    Depressed 5 to 15%/Near predicted monthly values. 
22 Sep    45    Depressed 5%/Near predicted monthly values. 
23 Sep    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations 
in HF conditions, more likely in the southern Aus/NZ regions, 
may be observed during the next two days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 716 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   261000 K  
Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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