[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 20 09:52:26 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. One C-class flare
(C1.6/1820UT) and two B-class flares, a B8.0 at 1031UT
and a B5.6 at 2030UT, were observed. The coronal hole
effect is still going strong, although showing signs
of decline now. The solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 750 to 650 km/s (approx) during the UT day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
kept fluctuating between +5 and -5 nT almost the whole day.
The solar wind stream is expected to remain strengthened
due to the coronal hole effect for approximately one to
two more days, showing gradual weakening during this period.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels during
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 31 3455 4443
Darwin 31 4455 4433
Townsville 23 2345 4432
Learmonth 32 3345 5453
Canberra 29 3355 4443
Hobart 30 3355 5343
Casey(Ant) 26 4544 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 SEP :
Townsville 18 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 164 (Severe storm)
Hobart 198 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 40 4656 4445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 23 Mostly unsettled to active.
21 Sep 20 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
22 Sep 16 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained enhanced
at unsettled to minor storm level today due to the
continued effect of the coronal hole induced high
speed solar wind stream. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to gradually decline over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded conditions may be expected
during the next two days, especially at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
depressions.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed upto
30% with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 43 Depressed 5%/Near predicted monthly values.
21 Sep 48 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 52 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions, more likely in the southern Aus/NZ regions,
may be observed during the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 781 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 329000 K
Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list