[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 17 09:15:07 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: **RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    2229UT  Confirmed  lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: The M1 event had an unusual flat xray profile was initially 
not optically correlated. Culgoora H-alpha imagery showed no 
on disk flare activity. SEC SXI imager is off line and SOHO 
imagery website latest EIT195 images were up to around 16UT. 
However, post flare looping became visible in Culgoora H-alpha 
imagery on the west limb after around 2250UT, and the event 
appears to be from departing region 456 on/behind the west limb. 
The unusual xray flare profile could be due to the event being 
from behind the limb. A weak proton enhancement is possible over 
next 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 350km/sec 
to 500km/sec, indicating coronal hole wind stream entry. A minor 
discontinuity in solar wind speed was observed at around 0930 UT, 
superimposed on this gradual increase. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mild to moderately 
southward -5 to -10nT over the UT day, reaching -15nT during 
interval 10-17UT. There is some ambiguity as to whether this 
southward IMF is due to the earlier than expected coronal hole 
wind stream entry and/or followed presumed weak shock like 
discontinuities from recent filament eruptions observed 
in the US ACE solar wind data yesterday. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 16 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      30   4244 5543
      Darwin              41   5-54 5544
      Townsville          26   3234 554-
      Learmonth           29   4233 5554
      Canberra            36   3244 6554
      Hobart              30   3344 -553
      Casey(Ant)          16   3333 4332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2112 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep    30    Active to minor storm 
18 Sep    25    Active to minor storm 
19 Sep    18    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 16 September 
and is current for interval 17-19 September. The geomagnetic 
field activity was earlier than expected with the Earth entering 
a coronal hole wind stream over past 24 hours. Active to minor 
storm conditions expected next two days. A possible weak (27nT) 
impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1339UT 
on 16 Sep, possible associated with recent filament eruptions. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event. Weak event possible next 24 hours.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
18 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
19 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions observed earlier than expected at 
mid to high latitudes. Degraded conditions expected next two days. 
Increased absorption possible next 24 hours polar regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Sep    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values first half UT day.
      Spread and absorption observed second half UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep    40    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Sep    40    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep    40    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 16 September 
and is current for interval 18-19 September. Mild to moderately 
depressed MUFS and degraded conditions for southern Aus/NZ region 
expected next few days. Northern region MUFs expected to remain 
mostly near predicted monthly values and are expected to be
only mildly effected by overnight geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    28200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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