[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 18 09:55:47 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 16/2224UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two C-class flares,
a C1.9 at 0142UT and a C2.4 at 0406UT, were observed. The
solar wind speed rose from 500 to 800 km/s (approx) during
the UT day due to the coronal hole effect. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained
mostly mildly to moderately southward. These factors raised
the geomagnetic activity to major and even severe geomagnetic
storm levels. The solar wind stream is expected to remain
strengthened due to the coronal hole effect for approximately
three more days, showing gradual weakening during this period.
The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels during
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Unsettled to severe storm.
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 38 3455 6445
Darwin 35 3455 6335
Townsville 34 2455 6335
Learmonth 37 3355 -555
Canberra 40 3446 6445
Hobart 37 -446 -445
Casey(Ant) 33 4554 4444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 SEP :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 85 (Minor storm)
Hobart 76 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 60
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 37 4355 6542
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 40 Active to minor storm. Isolated major storm periods
possible.
19 Sep 30 Mostly active to minor storm. Isolated major
storm periods possible.
20 Sep 25 Mostly active. Isolated minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 16 September
and is current for interval 17-19 September. The geomagnetic
activity rose to 'unsettled to major storm with periods of
severe storm' today due to the high speed coronal hole solar
wind stream and Bz turning southwards. The geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain enhanced during the next three days due
to the coronal hole effect- remaining at 'mostly active to
minor storm level with possibility of isolated major storm
periods' on day one of the period and then showing a gradual
decline during the next two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal-poor Normal-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Fair Fair-Poor Poor
19 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
20 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected during the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 45 Depressed 5 to 10%/Near predicted monthly values.
20 Sep 50 Depressed 5%/Near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 16
September and is current for interval 17-18 September. Mild
to moderately depressed MUFS and degraded conditions, more
likely in the southern Aus/NZ regions, are expected during
the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 82500 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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