[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 16 08:35:44 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 380 to 350km/sec. A possible
weak indistinct partial shock-like feature observed in ACE solar
wind data around 18UT on 15 Sep. Change in velocity was slow
and minor from 360 to 380km/sec, velcocity continued to decrease
post discontinuity. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was southward 5nT after this partial discontinuity.
Probably from recent filament related weak mass ejections. A large
equatorial coronal hole is visible in SOHO EIT284 imagery. Solar
wind speed is expected to reach a minimum today before increasing
again on 17 Sep due to anticpated Earth entry into coronal hole
high speed wind stream, from this coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 2100 1122
Darwin 7 ---- 2222
Townsville 2 1100 1023
Learmonth 1 1000 0111
Canberra 1 -000 002-
Hobart 0 1000 0012
Casey(Ant) 8 3322 1122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7 2122 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
17 Sep 20 Initially quiet to unsettled, reaching active
to minor storm levels later in day.
18 Sep 25 Active to minor storm
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair-Poor
18 Sep Normal Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Mild dgradation observed late in UT day at high latitudes.
Other latitudes near normal.Good HF conditions expected today before
a general degraded interval expecte dto start 17 Sep due to coronal hole
wind stream. Degradation expected to be confined to mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Some absorption observed late in UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 60 near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
18 Sep 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today. Southern Aus/NZ region
HF communication expected to become degraded from late 17 Sep
due to anticpated coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 38100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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