[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. Occasional Type 
III sweep activity observed on Culgoora radiospectrograph, and 
a non-correlated very weak Type II sweep observed at 0145UT. 
Possibility of isolated C to M-class flares today from region 
471. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2122 2222
      Darwin               1   1000 0200
      Townsville           9   2222 323-
      Learmonth            8   2122 323-
      Canberra             7   1212 223-
      Hobart               6   1211 223-
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-32 21-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              64   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   2212 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct    18    Active 
08 Oct    12    Unsettled 
09 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the UT day. Solar wind speed increased to over 600 km/s during 
the latter half of the UT day. IMF remained mostly northward 
during the UT day, with a period of strong magnitude fluctuations 
towards the end of the day. Isolated active periods in the geomagnetic 
field were observed at high latitudes during this time. Solar 
wind speed reamins elevated under the influence of a coronal 
hole at the time of report issue. Expect unsettled conditions 
today with isolated active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Oct    70    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Oct    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Widespread and persistent spread-F conditions observed 
over the UT day S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Expect normal to 
enhanced ionospheric propagation conditions today at low to mid 
latitudes. Possibile periods of degradation over the next two 
days in association with increased geomagnetic activity, especially 
at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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