[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Only minor C-class flare activity observed over the 
UT day, mostly originating from region 471. There is a possibility 
of C to M class activity again today from region 471. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 0122
      Darwin               0   1000 0000
      Townsville           3   0111 122-
      Learmonth            2   1100 0223
      Canberra             2   0010 0223
      Hobart               2   0110 0123
      Casey(Ant)           5   2231 01--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   1242 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Oct    18    active 
08 Oct    18    active 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the UT day. Solar wind speed commenced a sharp upward trend late 
in the UT day, accompanied by IMF polarity fluctuations of up 
to +/- 10 nT. This change possibly marks the commencement of 
the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. Expect unsettled conditions 
today, with isolated active and possible minor storm periods 
at high latitudes. Recurrence suggests this wind stream will 
persist for only one to two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Expect normal to enhanced HF propagation conditions 
today at low to mid latitudes. Possible isolated periods of disturbance 
at high latitudes over the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Oct    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Oct    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Oct    70    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect normal to enhanced ionospheric propagation conditions 
today at low to mid latitudes. Possibile periods of degradation 
over the next three days in association with increased geomagnetic 
activity, especially at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 473 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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