[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1547UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Most of the observed flare activity over the UT day 
was from region 471. A westward directed CME was observed in 
LASCO C3 imagery at 1313UT. Region of origin was probably AR 
464 which is now behind the west solar limb. There is a possibility 
of C to M class activity again today from region 471. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1122 2102
      Darwin               0   1000 0001
      Townsville           6   2122 3113
      Learmonth            4   2122 2002
      Canberra             3   1122 2002
      Hobart               5   1132 2001
      Casey(Ant)           9   ---3 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            59   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   3533 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Oct    18    active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained elevated at around 470 km/s, 
declining to around 400 km/s late in the UT day. There was a 
period of IMF fluctuation early in the UT day, resulting in isolated 
active conditions at high latitudes. Otherwise IMF maintained 
a mostly northward polarity resulting in unsettled conditions, 
becoming quiet later in the UT day. Expect mostly quiet conditions 
today, with a possibility of weak coronal hole wind stream effects 
commencing on day two and strengthening on day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Oct    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30-35% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
06 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
07 Oct    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild overnight spread-F conditions observed NZ region. 
Occasional intense spread-F conditions observed overnight Antarctic 
region. Expect normal to enhanced ionospheric propagation conditions 
today. Possibile periods of degradation on days two and three 
in association with increased geomagnetic activity, especially 
at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   179000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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