[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 8 09:39:51 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Region 471 remains the only visible area of significant 
magnetic complexity. There is a possibility of isolated C to 
M class activity from this region. The small equatorial coronal 
hole producing the present elevated solar wind stream is now 
approaching the west solar limb. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2220 3222
      Darwin               0   0100 0001
      Townsville          11   323- 3223
      Learmonth           10   -23- 3222
      Canberra            12   323- 3323
      Hobart              11   323- 3222
      Casey(Ant)          12   ---- 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           68   (Active)
      Canberra           120   (Major storm)
      Hobart             123   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct    12    Unsettled 
09 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods were observed late in the UT 
day yesterday, persisting into the first half of the UT day today 
at high latitudes. A further active period was observed at all 
latitudes around 10UT. Otherwise conditions were at mostly unsettled 
levels. Solar wind speed has declined steadily from over 600 
to about 500 km/s over the UT day. Interplanetary magnetic field 
Bz has remained mostly neutral with minor polarity fluctuations. 
As the present coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position, 
expect unsettled conditions today, becoming mostly quiet on days 
two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Brief depressions observed around local dawn at low 
latitudes. Periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes 
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect normal 
to enhanced HF propagation conditions for the next three days 
at low to mid latitudes. Possible isolated periods of disturbance 
today at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with isolated periods of disturbance. 


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
09 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
10 Oct    90    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed near local dawn at low latitudes. 
Isolated periods of absorption observed S. Ocean. Extended periods 
of spread-F conditions observed Antarctic regions. Expect generally 
good ionospheric propagation conditions for the next three days 
with possible isolated periods of disturbance at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    8.4 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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