[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: Solar region 365 has shown rapid growth over the past 
24 hours and may be possible of M-class flare activity if this 
growth continues. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 2322
      Darwin              11   3323 2322
      Townsville          11   3323 2322
      Learmonth           12   3323 1332
      Canberra            12   3333 1322
      Hobart              12   3333 1322
      Casey(Ant)          17   3433 2433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAY : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             22   3553 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May    16    Unsettled to active 
27 May    12    Unsettled 
28 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The Earth continues to be effected by a coronal hole 
solar wind stream. Active levels are expected at times for 26 
May for the Australian region. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result 
in mild depressions at times for 26 May for mid-high latitude 
regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 May    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15-30% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May    65    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
27 May    75    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
28 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result 
in mild depressions at times for 26-27 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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