[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW**  MAG:GREEN   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.0    0551UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.0    1640UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: Solar region 365 produced two M-class flares during 
26 May and further C- and M-class flare are possible for 27 May. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 26 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4342 2123
      Darwin               8   3232 2123
      Townsville          13   4342 2123
      Learmonth            9   3332 2123
      Canberra            11   4242 2023
      Hobart              11   3243 2113
      Casey(Ant)          15   4432 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             22   5543 2434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 May    12    Unsettled 
29 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity levels are expected to return to 
mostly unsettled to quiet levels as coronal hole effects decline. 
Recent flare/CME activity observed on 26 May does not appear 
to be Earthward directed and is therefore not expected to be 
geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal for the next few 
days as geomagnetic activity returns to mostly quiet levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 May    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values
      to depressed 10-20% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May    80    near predicted monthly values 
28 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
29 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal for the next few 
days as geomagnetic activity returns to mostly quiet levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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