[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 24 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   3333 3443
      Darwin              18   3333 3443
      Townsville          15   2333 3433
      Learmonth           20   3333 4443
      Canberra            19   2343 3443
      Hobart              20   2343 4443
      Casey(Ant)          16   3433 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            56   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             21   3445 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May    20    Unsettled to active 
26 May    16    Unsettled 
27 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the Earth is under the 
influence of another high speed coronal hole solar wind stream 
which is producing mostly unsettled to active levels. Active 
levels are expected at times for 25 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
26 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result 
in mild depressions at times for 25-26 May for mid-high latitude 
regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-20%.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    70    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 May    75    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
27 May    90    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels may result 
in mild depressions at times for 25-26 May for southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    99200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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