[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Small dicontinuity in solar wind speed around 17UT. A W 
shaped coronal hole can be seen on SOHO EIT284 imagery. 
The 27 day recurrence pattern suggested that an increase in solar 
wind speed should have been observed over past 24 hours. The 
discontinuity in solar wind speed may signal the entry into the coronal 
hole's wind stream but is not as yet conclusive due to wind speed dropping 
after disontinuity. A moderate increase in solar wind speed (may be up 
to around 600km/sec based on previous rotations) remains expected 
over the period 26-02Apr. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was predominately neutral on previous transits 
of this coronal hole. Solar region 321 in north-east quadrant 
has low level M class capability. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 1222
      Darwin               7   1222 1233
      Townsville           5   1222 1223
      Learmonth            7   2222 2222
      Canberra             4   0222 1122
      Hobart               5   0222 2122
      Casey(Ant)          11   3342 11--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2221 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
28 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
29 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods local night hours next few days due to 
coronal hole. Extended interval of active periods expected
up to 02 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Mar    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    39200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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