[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             125/78             135/89




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1212
      Darwin               4   1111 1222
      Townsville           2   1110 1112
      Learmonth            3   2110 0212
      Canberra             2   0110 0211
      Hobart               2   1110 0211
      Casey(Ant)           7   2-32 11--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10   3243 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar    20    active 
27 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions declined to quiet levels at all 
latitudes over the past 24 hours. Anticipated effects from the 
favourably positioned coronal hole have not yet eventuated. 
Interplanetary magnetic field polarity fluctuations have shown 
an increasing trend in amplitude over the past 24 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric depressions were observed briefly after 
local dawn at mid latitudes. Generally good HF conditions are 
expected until the onset of coronal hole effects anticipated 
within the next 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
27 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions were observed today, with 
some minor depressions observed in S. Aus region after local 
dawn. Deteriorating HF conditions are anticipated within the 
next 24 hours as an equatorial coronal hole moves into geoeffective 
location. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 589 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    93300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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