[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            155/109
COMMENT: It looks like yesterdays small discontinuity in the 
solar wind was the entry into the coronal hole wind stream with 
solar wind speed increasing from 400 to 500km/sec over the past 
24 hours. The north-south component of the IMF fluctuated southward 
by up to 10nT south between 4 and 14UT, then settled to near 
neutral. Solar region 321 in north-east quadrant has low level 
M class capability. At about 12 degrees north on the east solar 
limb appears to be the leader spot of the return of solar region 
296. Despite its size and some degree of magnetic complexity, 
this region produced no significant flare activity on its previous 
disk transit. More of the region will need to rotate onto disk 
before spot distribution/magnetic complexity for this rotation 
becomes eveident. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   4344 3434
      Darwin              16   3333 3434
      Townsville          17   4234 3334
      Learmonth           21   4333 4443
      Canberra            18   3344 3334
      Hobart              21   3344 4434
      Casey(Ant)          22   4-44 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1323 2223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
29 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
30 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods observed over past 24 hours. Further 
active periods expected next few days due to coronal hole. 
Extended period of active levels possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    40    depressed 10 to 20% (south Aus/NZ)
28 Mar    90    near predicted monthly values (north Aus)
29 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 27 March 
and is current for interval 28 March only. Southern region Aus/NZ 
MUFs depressed 15% after local dawn this morning following overnight 
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. Northern Aus region 
MUFs near normal. Mild degradation possible local night hours 
with possible brief depressions after local dawn for southern 
region Aus/NZ next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:    52400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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