[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 138/92


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: SOHO EIT 284 imagery shows a large broad coronal hole. 
Induced activity from this hole is expected 13-15 Mar. Effects 
may be stronger on this rotation due to seasonal factors (equinox). 
Some mild type 1 solar radio noise visible on the Culgoora Spectrograph 
this morning. Culgoora Halpha is clouded out this morning so 
cant confirm region. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3222 2123
      Darwin               8   3222 2224
      Townsville           6   2222 2123
      Learmonth            7   3222 1123
      Canberra             6   2222 2123
      Hobart               7   2232 2113
      Casey(Ant)          15   4--3 3133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             13   3243 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
14 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
15 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 12 March and 
is current for interval 13-15 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible for mid-high 
latitudes for the next few days as the result of anticipated 
elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Mar   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
14 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be initailly good today. 
Geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal hole is expected to 
produce mild depressions after local dawn for southern region 
Australia over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    85300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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