[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72
COMMENT: Large coronal hole visible on solar disk. Not much activity 
from solar regions over past 24 hours. Slight growth from region 311
just south of centre of solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3122
      Darwin              11   3323 3123
      Townsville          11   3323 3222
      Learmonth           11   3323 3222
      Canberra            12   3333 3122
      Hobart              12   3333 3122
      Casey(Ant)          24   4544 31--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
15 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
16 Mar    15    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 12 March and 
is current for interval 13-15 March. Coronal hole induced activity 
has yet to ebetuate, but is still expected over next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible for mid-high 
latitudes for the next few days as the result of anticipated 
elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar   100    near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
16 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Coronal hole inuced geomagnetci activity yet to eventuate, 
so forecasts slipped by one day. HF conditions are expected to 
be initailly good today. Geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal 
hole is expected to produce mild depressions after local dawn 
for southern region Australia over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060