[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             130/84
COMMENT: There is the small chance of an M-class flare from solar 
regions 296, 304 and 306. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3233 2323
      Darwin               9   2232 2323
      Townsville           9   2232 2323
      Learmonth           10   3232 2322
      Canberra             9   2233 2312
      Hobart              11   2333 2312
      Casey(Ant)          18   4-53 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   2333 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
13 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
14 Mar    20    Unsettled with active and possible minor storm 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the presence of a high 
speed coronal hole solar wind stream which was not expected to 
arrive until 14-15 March. The coronal hole solar wind stream 
is anticipated to persist for the next few days. Active and possible 
minor storm levels are expected over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible for mid-high 
latitudes for the next few days as the result of anticipated 
elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar    90    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
13 Mar    90    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
14 Mar    90    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible for southern 
regions for the next few days as the result of anticipated elevated 
geomagnetic activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    75400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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